STEVE DEMARTINO GOES ALL IN
Posted: (December 22, 2010 06:28 pm)
...and says this storm is going to happen, will be powerful, and will have a lasting influence on the weather pattern, for 3 main reasons:
(1) Shorrtwave coming in over CA currently is stronger than even what the Euro has depicted in its runs. Additionally there are rapidly building heights over the Gulf of Mexico - given the stronger shortwave, the stronger the ridge will build out ahead of the disturbance.
(2) The upper level low out over the Atlantic is miving to an ideal position - 50N/50W - not to the southeast as he and some of us had worried.
(3) Upper level low around the Gulf of Alska is starting to drift back toward the Aleutian islands. This allows the PNA ridge to build to impressive heights.
These feature together support a slow moving, moisture loaded, and dynamic storm over the East coast the next few days. These combination of factors typically do not falter going forward and is less of a thread the needle type of pattern.
The wild card is what will happen with the Polar and Arctic jet streams (for the triple phase) - but the Euro typically has a better handle on these disturbances, and the fact that the model is on lock down mode regarding this potential is HUGE. There is still room for a miss for the interior and less of an impact along the coast, but as of this evening right now he's placing more weight on a significant hit for the region given the signals.
He also discusses how the storm could stall per the Euro, with the window of the storm from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall total potential are from 1 foot to over 2 feet with increasing snow ratios as the storm goes on.
source: nynjpaweather.com premium site
Last Edited By: techman01 Dec 22 10 8:27 PM. Edited 1 time.